【crypto market analysis platform for trend following system】
发布时间：2026-04-11 09:00:04 来源：Pro Momentum Research 作者：Quant Trading
-
Bitcoin’s reputation has historically been built on crypto market analysis platform for trend following systemextreme boom-and-bust cycles, with steep drawdowns of up to 90% following all-time highs.\n\nThis cycle, however, the decline has been closer to 50%, a shift that analysts said reflects the maturation of BTC as an asset class.\n\n“Bitcoin’s drawdowns compressing to about 50% is a sign of a maturing market structure,” AdLunam co-founder and market analyst Jason Fernandes told CoinDesk.\n\n“As liquidity deepens and institutional participation increases, volatility naturally compresses on both the upside and the downside,” he added, saying that “at that point, the narrative shifts from questioning its legitimacy to optimizing allocation.”\n\nFernandes' comments are in response to an X post Tuesday by Fidelity Digital Assets , in which analyst Zack Wainwright noted growth is becoming “less impulsive,” with a reduced probability of extreme downside events as bitcoin matures.\n\nWainwright pointed out that the current drawdown from the Oct. 6 all-time-high of just over $126,200 is much less significant than previous pullbacks.\n\n“Each cycle has been less dramatic to the upside than the previous and downside risk has also been less dramatic,” he said.\n\nFernandes and Wainwright, of course, were referring to previous "bust" periods, most notably following the peaks of 2013 and 2017.\n\nAfter reaching a high of approximately $1,163 in late 2013, bitcoin entered a prolonged "crypto winter" that saw its price plummet to around $152 by January 2015, representing a drawdown of roughly 87%. A similar pattern was seen after the 2017 bull run, when it reached $20,000 in December before plummeting roughly 84% to $3,122 over the following 12 months.\n\nNot all analysts agree that deeper drawdowns are off the table.\n\nBloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone told CoinDesk that he believes bitcoin could still see a “normal reversion” toward $10,000, arguing that “the crypto bubble is over” and that any downturn could coincide with broader declines across equities, commodities and other risk assets.\n\nHowever, Fernandes, who has previously dissented with McGlone’s $10,000 forecast, said that scale itself is part of the story. As bitcoin grows into a larger asset class, the likelihood of 90% collapses diminishes simply because the capital required to drive such moves is too great. That effect is reinforced by institutional integration, from ETFs to pension exposure, which makes large-scale unwinds structurally harder.\n\nThe shift is already showing up in portfolio construction.\n\n“The portfolio data is really what shifts institutional behavior,” Fernandes said. “If a small 1% to 3% allocation can materially improve returns and Sharpe ratios without significantly increasing drawdowns, then bitcoin starts to function less like a standalone bet and more like an efficiency enhancer within a diversified portfolio.”\n\nThat framing changes the risk calculus. “The risk isn’t about owning bitcoin anymore,” Fernandes stated. “It’s the opportunity cost of having no exposure at all.”\n\nRecent Fidelity research supports that transition. In a 10-year comparison across major asset classes, bitcoin delivered roughly 20,000% returns, significantly outperforming equities, gold, and bonds, while also leading on risk-adjusted measures despite its volatility.\n\n“Bitcoin remains a relatively young asset, yet it has quickly matured into a major asset class and has been the top-performing asset in 11 out of the past 15 years,” the report noted.\n\nAt the same time, the tradeoff is becoming clearer.\n\n“There’s a tradeoff here that’s worth articulating,” Fernandes said. “As bitcoin matures and volatility compresses, you should also expect returns to normalize. The asymmetric upside of the early cycles came with extreme drawdowns, but as those drawdowns shrink, the asset increasingly behaves like a macro allocation rather than a venture-style bet.”\n\nThat brings it back to the drawdowns.\n\nIf bitcoin is no longer falling 80%, and portfolios can benefit from small allocations without materially increasing risk, then the asset is evolving into something more investible and usable, Fernandes said, concluding that for institutions, that may be the real inflection point.\n\nCORRECTION (April 2, 09:46 UTC): Correct to note X post was by Fidelity Assets.
- 上一篇：Bitcoin, ether, solana slide further as Trump threatens to hit Iran 'extremely hard'
- 下一篇：Jamie Dimon signals JPMorgan entry into prediction markets as competition surges
- What traders should know about Strategy Backtesting 962
- Beginner guide to Strategy Optimization 954
- Key benefits of Paper Trading for modern traders 449
- Why more users are adopting Webhook Trading 320
相关文章
- Metaplanet acquires 5,075 BTC, jumps to third largest bitcoin treasury company
- How Algorithmic Trading supports smarter execution 412
- How Bot Performance improves daily trading workflows 196
- What traders should know about Webhook Trading 460
- Cango raises capital as it faces NYSE delisting risk with shares below $1
- How Bot Performance improves daily trading workflows 836
- Key benefits of Multi Exchange Trading for modern traders 906
- Why more users are adopting Webhook Trading
- Franklin Templeton launches crypto division with 250 Digital acquisition
- Key benefits of Paper Trading for modern traders 369
- Solana DeFi platform Drift confirms 'active attack' as $200M+ leaves platform
- How Risk Management improves daily trading workflows 344
- What makes a strong solution for Paper Trading 89
- Common mistakes to avoid with Futures Trading 750
- Metaplanet acquires 5,075 BTC, jumps to third largest bitcoin treasury company
- What traders should know about Spot Trading 311
- How Signal Execution supports long term strategy development
- Advanced insights into Multi Exchange Trading 886
- Ripple Treasury puts XRP and RLUSD inside corporate finance for the first time
- Common mistakes to avoid with Automated Crypto Trading 921
随便看看
Why more users are adopting Webhook Trading 800
How Quantitative Trading supports smarter execution 263
What makes a strong solution for Execution Speed 718
How Quantitative Trading supports smarter execution 423
- Copyright © 2026 Powered by 【crypto market analysis platform for trend following system】,Pro Momentum Research sitemap